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Opened Haz 17, 2025 by Aidan Dodge@aidan60s651030
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Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in The U.S.


Estimating the Size of the Commercial Real Estate Market in the U.S.

1. Home 2. REIT Data 3. Research 4. Nareit Research

The estimated overall dollar worth of industrial genuine estate was $20.7 trillion since 2021: Q2.

Highlights

This research study note summarizes a research study by Nareit mainly using information from CoStar that estimates the total dollar value of industrial realty was $20.7 trillion as of 2021: Q2. This study updates and builds on the methodology for Nareit's previous estimates of the industrial genuine estate market.

Table 1 sums up the price quotes by residential or commercial property sector. The overall price quote is $20.7 trillion. Measurement issues with the underlying data recommend that the actual value of total CRE may vary from this point quote. An evaluation of these sources of uncertainty suggests that the real value is extremely likely to fall within a variety of $18 - $22 trillion. These estimates are based on a bottom-up method using the very best available information for each residential or commercial property sector.

We likewise estimate overall REIT holdings of business genuine estate utilizing information from Capital IQ Pro. For the second quarter of 2021, REITs make up an estimated 9.4% of the overall CRE market. REITs tend to focus on institutional-quality residential or commercial properties that are more recent and of greater quality than many other business residential or commercial properties that are owned by private financiers. We estimate the overall value of these "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties to be approximately 50% of the total CRE market and that the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties is 18.7% for the 2nd quarter of 2021.

Chart 1 shows a time series of the REIT share of the overall CRE market and the REIT share of the REIT-like CRE market.

Methodology
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To estimate the size of the commercial realty market, we use a multi-step method based on the finest offered data for each residential or commercial property sector.

- We start by determining and estimating the number of systems (for multifamily) and total square video (for other residential or commercial property sectors) by residential or commercial property sector and residential or commercial property quality type for the largest 200 markets in the U.S. This procedure used CoStar's data export function covering the Office, Retail, Multifamily, and Industrial residential or commercial property sectors that offered overall square video footage and systems along with the average rate per square foot (for office, retail, and commercial) or per system (for multifamily).

  • The details on square footage and typical rate by residential or commercial property type (for retail: General Retail, Mall, Neighborhood Center, and Strip Center; for commercial: Flex, Logistics, and Specialized), CoStar quality score (1-2 Star, 3 Star, 4-5 Star), and groups of city areas (gateway cities, next largest 48 city locations, and all other metro areas) permit more analysis of the geographic distribution of business realty throughout the country and price quotes of institutional-grade industrial genuine estate versus all other. These price quotes in turn work for determining the REIT share of industrial genuine estate by residential or sector.
  • To approximate worths for the Healthcare and Hospitality sectors where we do not have actually disaggregated overalls offered from CoStar, we use the worths from an aggregate analysis of industrial property market size conducted by CoStar, upgraded utilizing aggregate development rate assumptions.
  • To approximate the worth of Data Centers and Towers, we approximate the overall value of REITs in these residential or commercial property sectors and gross as much as cover the whole market utilizing assumptions on the REIT portion of these sectors (50% for Data Centers and 75% for Towers). Recent Nareit-sponsored research on cell tower REITs highlights their significance in the CRE market. The calculated value for Data Centers is subtracted from the Industrial overall, as it is included in the CoStar price quote of total square video footage of Industrial residential or commercial properties.
  • We approximate the REIT share of the industrial real estate market by utilizing data from S&P Capital IQ Pro on the Real Estate Value of REITs. We accumulate the overall Property Value for the most recent quarter and divide by the overall value of the CRE market.
  • To develop a time series for REIT share, we utilize observed information on the overall size of the CRE market considering that 2012. For several years before 2012, we presume an 8% growth in total value for each year going back to 1995. For the years 2007 - 2011, we follow different conventions to account for the results of the Great Financial Crisis. In 2007, we approximate that the total CRE value decreased the exact same percent as REITs. This percent decline is the same for both parts in 2008. In 2009 - 2011, both the overall market and the REIT values increase to 1/4, 1/2, and 3/4 of the way to the 2012 value, respectively.
  • In addition to approximating the REIT share of the total market, we also estimate the REIT share of 'REIT-like residential or commercial properties.' REITs do not own many older, lower quality, or smaller residential or commercial properties that are owned by personal financiers. Therefore, we estimate that half of the overall market is "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties and we divided the REIT value by that number to approximate the REIT share of "REIT-like" residential or commercial properties.
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